任天堂 Switch 2 销量预测：2025 年市场前景

Gaming Analyst Predicts Strong, but Not Leading, Switch 2 Sales in 2025

A recent forecast by gaming analyst Mat Piscatella estimates US sales of the Nintendo Switch 2 at 4.3 million units in 2025, contingent on a first-half launch. This projection, while impressive, positions the Switch 2 as a strong contender but potentially second to the PlayStation 5 in overall US console sales for the year.

The original Switch's launch in 2017 saw 4.8 million units sold, exceeding expectations and leading to supply shortages. Piscatella's prediction incorporates the possibility of similar, albeit hopefully less severe, supply constraints for the Switch 2. Whether Nintendo has adequately prepared to avoid a repeat of the initial Switch launch issues remains to be seen.

While anticipation for the Switch 2 is high, translating online buzz into substantial sales depends on several critical factors. These include the console's launch timing, the quality of its hardware, and the competitiveness of its initial game lineup. A launch before April 2025, capitalizing on key holiday periods, could significantly boost sales.

Piscatella's projection suggests the Switch 2 will capture approximately one-third of the US console market (excluding handheld PCs like the Steam Deck). However, he anticipates the PlayStation 5 retaining the top spot, driven in part by the highly anticipated release of Grand Theft Auto 6, a title not expected on Nintendo platforms. Ultimately, the Switch 2's success hinges on a compelling hardware offering and a strong launch title selection to compete against the PS5's offerings.

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