Nintendo Switch 2 Looms: Original Switch and Game Sales Plummet

Nintendo has once again lowered its hardware sales forecast for the Nintendo Switch, citing sales that fell "below expectations." Over the first nine months of the current fiscal year, revenue from Nintendo's dedicated game console business dropped by 31.7% year-on-year, reaching 895.5 billion yen (approximately $5.7 billion). This decline was driven by reduced sales of both the Nintendo Switch hardware and its software.

Similarly, income from mobile and IP-related activities decreased by 33.9% year-on-year, totaling 49.7 billion yen (approximately $320 million). This downturn was largely influenced by the challenging comparison to the previous year's success with The Super Mario Bros. Movie. As a result, Nintendo's gross profit saw a year-on-year decline of 27.3%, amounting to 565.5 billion yen (approximately $3.6 billion).

Nintendo has adjusted its financial projections for the fiscal year ending March 2025, marking the second consecutive revision. The company now anticipates selling 11 million Nintendo Switch units, a decrease of 1.5 million from its previous forecast, and expects to sell 150 million software units, down by 10 million from earlier projections.

Despite being in its eighth year, the Nintendo Switch has achieved remarkable success, with over 150 million units sold. While surpassing Sony's PlayStation 2 to become the best-selling console of all time seems increasingly unlikely, the Nintendo DS's record of 154 million units sold is within reach.

In the third quarter ending December 31, 2024, Nintendo described Switch and software sales as "stable," despite the platform's age. Overall sales of the Nintendo Switch family of systems were down by 30.6% year-on-year, with 9.54 million units sold. Software sales also declined by 24.4% year-on-year, reaching 123.98 million units. However, new releases such as The Legend of Zelda: Echoes of Wisdom, Super Mario Party Jamboree, Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, Nintendo Switch Sports, and Mario & Luigi: Brothership have performed well, with Super Mario Party Jamboree particularly standing out. It outsold previous Mario Party titles for the Switch in the first 11 weeks following its October 17, 2024 release.

Importantly, as Nintendo gears up for the launch of the Switch 2 later this year, the number of active Switch players has reached an all-time high, with 129 million annual playing users in 2024. This indicates sustained interest in the Switch, even after nearly eight years since its initial launch in March 2017.

Nintendo acknowledged the year-on-year decline in Switch unit sales but highlighted that consumer interest remains strong, with some weeks during the holiday season seeing sales surpass those of the previous year.

Investors are eagerly awaiting the release of the Nintendo Switch 2, which Nintendo confirmed will launch in 2025. The company plans to provide more details during a Switch 2 Direct on April 2, and hands-on events will be held globally. Upcoming titles for the original Switch include Xenoblade Chronicles X: Definitive Edition, set for release on March 20, and Pokémon Legends: Z-A and Metroid Prime 4: Beyond, both scheduled for 2025.

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