Nintendo Cautiously Forecasts Switch 2 Sales Amid Tariff Uncertainty

Nintendo has released what industry analysts are describing as a "conservative" sales forecast for the upcoming Nintendo Switch 2, citing ongoing uncertainties related to tariffs. In its financial report this morning, Nintendo projected sales of 15 million units of the Switch 2 and 45 million game copies for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026. The much-anticipated console is set to hit the market on June 5.

Nintendo's forecast is based on the assumption that the current U.S. tariff rates, which took effect on April 10, will remain unchanged throughout the fiscal year. However, the company acknowledged that any adjustments to these tariffs could impact their projections. “We will continue to monitor the situation to respond to changes in market conditions,” Nintendo stated.

Daniel Ahmad, Director of Research & Insights at Niko Partners, characterized the 15 million unit target as "conservative." In a tweet, Ahmad suggested that Nintendo's forecast likely accounts for the unpredictability surrounding tariffs, pricing, and production, despite strong pre-order momentum. He added that Nintendo might revise its forecast upward if the tariff situation improves. “However, the main issue right now is the knock-on effects already in motion, creating a challenging environment for a console launch, not to mention the threat of increased tariffs,” Ahmad noted.

It's important to highlight that if the Switch 2 achieves sales of 15 million units in its first year, it would rank among the most successful console launches in history, surpassing the original Nintendo Switch's first-year sales of 14.87 million units.

Demand for the Nintendo Switch 2 appears to be incredibly high. Following a delay attributed to tariffs, pre-orders for the console commenced on April 24, with the price set at $449.99. The response to the pre-orders was as overwhelming as anticipated. Additionally, Nintendo has issued a caution to U.S. customers who pre-ordered through the My Nintendo Store, indicating that delivery on the release date cannot be guaranteed due to the intense demand.

For more detailed information on securing your Nintendo Switch 2, be sure to check out IGN's comprehensive Nintendo Switch 2 pre-order guide.